The U.S. Department of State (DOS) determines the dates in the monthly Visa Bulletin based on a combination of factors related to the demand and supply of immigrant visas. It is a complicated and obscure process that does not really lend itself to easy explanation. For that reason, this article provides only an outline of the method and process, which involves the following steps:

1. Visa Allocation: Legal immigration to the United States is controlled by statutory numerical limitations called quotas, which are applied to the family-based and employment-based categories and to the overall number of permanent resident visas distributed per country, per year. INA § 201(c). Backlogs develop because there are more applicants in some countries and categories than there are visas. The statute limits annual immigration in the family-based preference categories to 480,000 (less the number of persons admitted as special immigrants or refugees plus the number of any unused employment-based visas from the prior fiscal year). In fiscal year 2023, for example, approximately 205,000 persons immigrated in the family preference categories. The fiscal year 2025 limit for family-based preference immigrants, determined in accordance with section 201(c), is 226,000.

   Each preference category has the following annual cap, as well as a per country limit: first preference, 23,400 visas; third preference, 23,400; and fourth preference, 65,000. The second preference numbers are more complicated to calculate since the total of 114,200 visas is divided between two sub-categories: about 77,400 are allocated to F-2A (75 percent are exempt from the per-country limit) and 36,800 allocated to F-2B. Unused numbers in one category spill down to the next category (i.e., unused F-1 visas spill down to F-2; visas not used by F-4 spill up to F-1).

   Non-quota immigrants, such as immediate relatives, are exempt from the yearly limitations. In fiscal year 2023, approximately 552,000 family-based visas in the immediate relative category were issued. Thus, the total number of immigrants who adjusted status or entered with an immigrant visa based on a family-sponsored petition that year was about 756,000.
    

2. Priority Dates: Each beneficiary on an I-130 petition is assigned a priority date, which is the date their petition was properly filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). This date determines their place in line for visa processing.
    

3. Demand and Supply Analysis: DOS collects data from USCIS and U.S. consulates worldwide to assess the number of applicants in each visa category and their respective priority dates.
    

4. Visa Cut-Off Dates: DOS evaluates the number of available visas and the demand in each category and for each country. It then establishes any necessary cut-off dates, which determine when the first applicants who are eligible to apply for an immigrant visa or adjustment of status. If an applicant’s priority date is earlier than the cut-off date, they can proceed with their application.
    

5. Monthly Updates: The Visa Bulletin is updated monthly to reflect changes in visa demand and availability. This means the cut-off dates can move forward, stay the same, or even retrogress (move backward) depending on the current data and trends.
    

6. Country-Specific Limits: The per country limitation on the number of visas that can be issued serves to avoid monopolization of all the annual limitation by applicants from only a few countries. The per-country limits may affect the cut-off dates for applicants from countries with high demand (like India, China, Mexico, and the Philippines).

The process is a balancing act that aims both to use all available visas within the fiscal year, without exceeding that number, while at the same time managing the backlog of applicants in an orderly manner.

The Final Action Dates in Chart A determine when a visa is available for issuance. At the beginning of each month, DOS receives a report from each consular post listing totals of “documentarily qualified” immigrant visa applicants (those who have paid all fees, submitted all forms, and uploaded civil documents) in the family preference categories. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference category, and priority date. DOS receives a similar report from USCIS on the number of adjustment of status applications awaiting a visa to become available. DOS subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations into monthly allotments. The totals are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. Not all numbers allocated are used that month for visa issuance; some are returned to the Visa Office and are reincorporated into the pool of numbers available for later allocation during the fiscal year. The rate of return of unused numbers may fluctuate from month to month, just as demand fluctuates. The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of the following variables: past visa number use, estimates of future number use and return rates, and estimates of additional USCIS demand based on movement in Chart A.

DOS determines a monthly allocation target number and compares that with the demand. If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "current" and is marked with a “C.” That was true for the F-2A category for a number of months between 2019 and 2022. More likely, the total number of applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment and the category is considered "oversubscribed." In that case a cut-off date is established, which would be the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number in the prior month. If the monthly target number is 3,000, for example, and the demand exceeds that, the cut-off date would be established so that only 3,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off would be the priority date of the 3,001 applicant. Only persons with a priority date earlier than that date would be allotted a visa number. The final action dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since Visa Office groups demand for numbers under these dates. It attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month.

Let's take an example of how DOS determined the dates in the January 2025 Visa Bulletin in the F-3 category, which is for married sons and daughters of U.S. citizens.

1. Visa Allocation: There are 23,400 visas available annually for the F-3 category.
    

2. Demand and Supply Analysis: The Department of State collects data indicating that as of Nov. 1, 2023:

   • There were 192,778 (32.7 percent of the demand) immigrant visa applicants from Mexico in the F-3 category.
   • There were 94,236 (16.0 percent of the demand) immigrant visa applicants from the Philippines in the F-3 category.
   • There were 179,738 applicants from all other countries in the F-3 category.
   • Each country is allowed a maximum of 7 percent of the total annual number of visas in the F-3 category (.07 x 23,400) or 1,638.
   • Given that there were more applicants for F-3 than visas available, a cutoff date was set to limit the number of applicants who can move forward in the visa process.
   • The per-country limits for the F-3 category mean that Mexico and the Philippines, which are experiencing increased demand, will have cut-off dates several years behind all other countries.

3. Visa Cut-Off Dates: Based on the available visas and demand for January 2025:

   • DOS set the cutoff date for the F-3 category at July 1, 2010, for all but Mexico and the Philippines, meaning that only applicants with priority dates before that date can proceed with their visa applications.
   • For Mexico: Due to high demand and per country limit, the cut-off date was set at Nov. 22, 2000.
   • For the Philippines: Due to high demand and the per country limit, the cut-off date was set at Nov. 8, 2002.
   • The July 1, 2010, cut-off date in the F-3 category for all chargeability areas except Mexico and the Philippines indicates a 15½-year backlog. This does not mean that petitions filed today will have a visa available in July 2040. One cannot predict when a priority date will become current, given that the Visa Bulletin can move backward or forward each month at different speeds or remain frozen, depending on visa supply and demand in each category for that month, various other fluctuations, as well as spillover from other categories.